TurfPedia - The Horse Racing Encyclopedia

BEYER SPEED FIGURES
Speed figures are numerical representations of adjusted final times. They are derived from speed charts.

The array of numbers on a speed chart reflects the value of a fifth of a second at various distances.

The popular Andrew Beyer altered the composition of many modern speed charts in 1975 when he proposed that a fifth of a second should have greater value in faster races and at shorter distances. Beyer's charts were constructed on the principle of proportional time, the idea that faster horses should be expected to run longer distances proportionately faster than would slower horses.

Prior to Bayer, most speed charts incorporated the principle of parallel time, the illogical notion that all horses should be expected to run an additional furlong in the same time. If Horse A completed six furlongs in 1:10 flat, it should complete seven furlongs in 1:23.1. If Horse B completed six furlongs in 1:11 flat, it should complete seven furlongs in 1:24.1. In this way the slower horse runs the additional furlong in the same 13.1 seconds as the faster horse. Prior to 1975, speed handicapping was bad handicapping. At shorter distances, the value of a fifth of a second is greater than at longer distances. At six furlongs on the Santa Anita chart, a fifth of a second is worth 2.8 points. At seven furlongs a fifth is worth 2.3 points. At l 1/8 miles a fifth is worth 1.7 points. The weighting changes from track to track.

Horses earn higher speed figures by running a fifth of a second faster in sprints than by running a fifth of a second faster in routes, another relationship that mimics reality. A sprinter that improves from 1:10 flat to 1:09.4 at six furlongs improves its figure from 94 to 97. A router that improves from 1:52 to 1:51.4 seconds at 11/8 miles improves its figure from 80 to 82.

Naturally, as the differences in fifths of seconds among racehorses grow larger, the differences in the corresponding speed figures will grow proportionately greater.

The running times on the Beyer speed chart should be considered adjusted times, not actual times. As the preceding sections note, the actual times have been adjusted to reflect the track-surface speed on any particular day. If a horse at Santa Anita runs six furlongs in 1:10 unadjusted. the speed figure is 94. But if the track were Fast 3 that day, the adjusted time would be 1:10.3, yielding a speed figure of 86. Quite a difference, Can anyone doubt any longer the importance of daily track variants in modern speed handicapping?

Here is a crucial point: speed figures do not represent reality, but estimates of reality. The estimates contain error, sometimes small, sometimes gross. At its best, figure handicapping remains an imprecise art. Beyer-style speed figures will be accurate only to the extent the projected times and daily track variants on which the adjusted times have been based have themselves been accurate. When the projected times and track variants are seriously flawed, so will be the resulting speed figures.