DAILY TRACK VARIANTS

The daily track variant is the measure of track-surface speed on a particular day. It is calculated as the average deviation between expected times, normally pars, and actual times, for sprints and routes, respectively. It is used to adjust actual running times to reflect track-surface speed.

Controversy has stalked the daily track variant since its contemporary incarnation, giving the concept a tortured history. But the basic issues surrounding track variants have been framed poorly. The issue is not whether track variants are important enough to matter, because they irrefutably are, but how to obtain accurate variants given the wild array of running times recorded daily at the nation's racetracks. At times it seems the value of the daily track variant differs in direct accord with the number of handicappers making them.

The constant variation, however, lends the daily variant its ultimate charm. The calculation becomes not a science, but an art. The first lesson to internalize about track variants is that accuracy cannot be obtained mechanically, as by applying arithmetical rules. The problem upsets numerous handicappers, notably those who would prefer to reduce the artistry to computer programming.

To dramatize the problem, below are yesterday's track variants for the nine races at Hollywood Park.

In calculating variants, sprints and routes are grouped, and so are turf races. Too frequently it cannot be done that way. Figure handicappers examine individual race variants carefully, looking for atypical and inconsistent deviations.

In calculating variants, prefer races open to older horses at middle to high-priced claiming levels. Next find the races for maidens 3up and for nonwinners allowance horses. Maiden-claiming races can often be discounted as inordinately slow.

At times the sprint variant will be incompatible with the day's route variant, but such a phenomenon is not unusual. If turf variants are unclear on a specific day, which happens regularly, figure handicappers will cluster the turf variants for a week and strike a five-day average. The weekly average represents the daily track variant on the turf course for each day's races during that week.

Once in hand, daily track variants are used to adjust the actual times. The adjusted times will be converted to speed and pace figures.

When predicated upon an accurate set of par times, daily track variants can be expected to range from three lengths fast to three lengths slow on a majority of racing days. That's a range encompassing seven lengths.

At all tracks, at different times, variants will be extreme. Extreme variants contribute to greater error in figure handicapping, but racegoers without variants will be virtually lost when horses that competed on atypical days return to action. If the track surface has been Fast 8, handicappers obviously need to know that. Not knowing results in imagining winners have run eight lengths faster than they actually have. When those winners are whipped to a frazzle by horses showing apparently slower running times, unaware racegoers scratch their heads. Horsemen then proclaim that final time doesn't mean anything. Turf writers report the actual times with no insight as to what has actually transpired. Excellent figure handicappers smile smugly, while lying in wait for the upcoming betting capers.

Certain complications in the calculations of daily track variants are well-known and have been widely reported. On days when the track surface has been fast early and slow later, or vice versa, figure handicappers split the variant. Sprints might be Fast 3 for races one to five, but Slow 3 for races six to nine. Splitting the variants to reflect track conditions at different points in the racing day can be important and greatly advantageous.

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