TurfPedia - The Horse Racing Encyclopedia

PARS
Pars are averages. A par time indicates how fast a specific class of horse typically runs a specific distance at a particular racetrack, such as $20,000 claiming horses running six furlongs at Santa Anita. Alert handicappers can deliver from memory the par times of key classes in sprints and routes at their racetracks, including maidens, $l0,000 claiming horses 4up, high priced older claiming horses, and stakes horses.

A practiced glance at a par-time chart provides handicappers a wealth of information they should not be without.

What do figure handicappers know about Santa Anita?

Well. The track surface is relatively fast. Maidens typically win in 1:10, and the cheapest stock on the grounds (Mdn-Clm $32,000) runs only a second slower. On glib surfaces, ordinary horses more readily can approach the par times of stakes horses, contributing to an inflation factor among the figures of overnight horses. The circumstance presses the importance of obtaining an accurate daily track variant, a topic to be covered next.

Notice the perfect positive correlation between the classes of races and their par times. Better horses run faster. The $16,000 claiming horses will run faster than the $12,500 brand, on average, and stakes horses will run faster than the classified allowance kind, on average. The same patterns are repeated at every racetrack in the country, large, medium, and small. Studies of par times have demonstrated beyond dispute the perfect positive correlation between class and speed, ending for all time fruitless arguments between those embattled camps.

Santa Anita Par Times Sprints

Class	Par	Pace	6F	6 1/2F	Pace	7F
STK	111	43.9	1:08.2	1:14.4	44.2	1:21.2
ClAlw	109	44.1	1:08.4	1:15.1	44.4	1:21.4
NW3	108	44.2	1:09.0	1:15.2	44.5	1:22.0
NW2	107	44.3	1:09.1	1:15.3	44.6	1:22.1
NW1	105	44.5	1:09.3	1:16.0	44.8	1:22.3
MDN	103	44.7	1:10.0	1:16.2	45.0	1:23.0
M50	100	45.0	1:10.3	1:17.0	45.3	1:23.3
M32	98	45.2	1:11.0	1:17.2	45.5	1:24.0
50	107	44.3	1:09.1	1:15.3	44.6	1:22.1
40	106	44.4	1:09.2	1:15.4	44.7	1:22.2
32	105	44.5	1:09.3	1:16.0	44.8	1:22.3
25	104	44.6	1:09.4	1:16.1	44.9	1:22.4
20	103	44.7	1:10.0	1:16.2	45.0	1:23.0
16	102	44.8	1:10.1	1:16.3	46.1	1:23.1
12.5	101	44.9	1:10.2	1:16.4	45.2	1:23.2
10	100	45.0	1:10.3	1:17.0	45.3	1:23.3

Between classes too, par-time differences are invariably small, one or two lengths. At Santa Anita the lowest level of claiming horse runs seven lengths slower than the highest level of claiming horse. Each claiming class rates one-fifth faster than the preceding level. All tracks are not as perfectly linear, but the general pattern holds. Step-ups in claiming class are not only permissible; they can be easily accomplished. Double jumps can be perfectly acceptable.

The nonclaiming division appears more irregular, also typical of most racetracks. Now the next step-up in class will likely be two lengths faster, instead of one. Double jumps are more difficult under nonclaiming conditions, normally embracing a faster pace and faster final time in combination. In addition, a couple of lengths improvement against a relatively faster clocking is more difficult to achieve than a similar improvement against a relatively slower clocking.

Inspection of a racetrack's par times can advise handicappers at what junctions class rises and drops might be facile or troublesome. Look for a two-length gap in either direction,

At Santa Anita, maidens will be pressed to win the first allowance race. The next stop in the nonclaiming division, to nonwinners twice other than maiden or claiming, will be similarly tough. Winners of allowance races at Santa Anita normally must improve another four to five lengths before handling stakes conditions. Other major tracks will look similar.

Notice the two-length gap at Santa Anita between the only two classes of maiden-claiming races carded there, Mdn-Clm $50,000 and Mdn-Clm $32,000. Drop downs between those levels win frequently, especially when the pace of the higher-class race has been swifter. The same will be true of maiden-claiming competition everywhere look for noticeable gaps of two lengths or more among the par times.

Notice that the pace at Santa Anita is typically slower at seven furlongs than at six or 61/2. This too is rather standard at U.S. racetracks. Despite the longer run down the backside to the turn of a seven-furlong sprint, jockeys typically slow the pace, preferring to conserve their horses' energies at the longer sprint distances. In consequence, numerous sprints at seven furlongs will feature a tantalizingly slow pace, an especially comfortable circumstance for better front-runners, who regularly steal these races.

A greatly prized virtue of figure handicapping, at any racetrack, is that par times facilitate the tricky comparisons between claiming classes and nonclaiming classes.

At Santa Anita, where should maiden graduates that cannot proceed successfully under nonclaiming conditions be expected in the claiming division?

At the $20,000 claiming level.

Why? The par times at the respective class levels are equal. If maiden winners are next entered at $40,000 claiming, they will probably lose. The $40,000 claimers typically run three lengths faster than maiden winners at Santa Anita.

Similarly, horses at Santa Anita that have won one allowance race but cannot win a second allowance race, should be expected to win next at $32,000 claiming, The corresponding pars are 1:09.3. If a winner of one allowance race has been entered at $50,000 claiming, it is probably outclassed. If it is entered instead at $25,000 claiming, the allowance winner probably enjoys a class edge.

At Santa Anita the highest-priced claiming horses are severely outclassed when pitted against stakes horses, in sprints and routes. Par-time differences of a full second amount to a minimum of five lengths. At medium and small tracks, this is usually not the case. The highest-priced claiming horses frequently will record par times equal to the stakes pars.

Studies of par times at the nation's racetracks uncovered another finding veritably monumental in its consequences for figure handicapping. With exceptions, $10,000 claiming horses can be considered pretty much the same everywhere. As on the Santa Anita chart, if the $10,000 claiming pars are set equal to a figure of 100 and that figure is increased or decreased in accord with running times faster or slower than the $10,000 claiming pars, the procedure provides a basis for figure handicapping that facilitates track-to-track comparisons. This fortunate reality has provided the basis for one of the two most popular approaches to figure handicapping in this country.

Par-time charts and the associated speed figures reflect the abilities of older horses. Pars are calculated from the races of older horses, excepting the pars for maidens and the nonwinners allowances. Adjustments are needed to designate the par times of similar races for fillies and mares, for maiden-claiming horses, and for three-year-olds. Fortunately, the adjustments are standard.

Fillies and mares run slower than males by two lengths in sprints and three lengths in routes.

Maiden-claiming horses run slower than horses at the same selling prices by five lengths in sprints and by seven lengths in routes.

Adjustments for three-year-olds vary with the time of the year and apply to claiming races.

In claiming races, three-year-olds typically run slower than older horses by three lengths in sprints, five lengths at a mile, and seven lengths beyond a mile for the first three months of the year; by three lengths in sprints, four lengths at a mile, and five lengths beyond a mile during the second quarter of the year, by two lengths in sprints, three lengths at a mile, and four lengths beyond a mile during the third quarter of the year; by one length in sprints, two lengths at a mile, and three lengths beyond a mile by the final three months of the year. These adjustments estimate reality well enough.

Par times are best calculated by poring over results charts for the preceding racing season. Actual times for every class and distance can be listed in columns, correlated, and averaged. Fifteen races to estimate par are recommended, but nine frequently will be enough. Ignore extreme times. Races limited to three-year-olds can be examined separately, a local line that can supersede the standard adjustments.

Figure analysts urge handicappers to pay the price and elaborate personal par charts at least once. The hands-on experience is considered both instructive and informative. Virtually no one complies. Pars instead are purchased locally or nationally, for a fee. This is fair procedure, and saves time and sweat. By whatever means, obtain the pars for local tracks and feeder tracks. The win percentage will improve, as will the average odds on winners and the ultimate return on investment.