WHY MAKE FIGURES?

Racetrack customers alert to running times see only that two horses have recorded the same final times. Unable to distinguish the pair on speed, they next consider jockeys, post positions, trainers, weight, form, pedigree, trips, distance, running style, and the rest, but already the game has been lost,

Horse B actually can outrun A by six lengths or better, and no combination of other factors can overcompensate for the disadvantage. Horse A competed on a racing surface that was three lengths faster than normal, and Horse B competed on a racing surface that was three lengths slower than normal. The adjusted final times look like this:

Now which horse do racing's customers prefer? I suspect they would want to wager a bit on B. Those that did would have a splendid chance to cash.
A crucial factor affecting running times is track-surface speed. This varies day to day, usually slightly, sometimes greatly. Track surfaces typically deviate from normal times by one, two, or three lengths, either fast or slow, So a deviation of six lengths between two horses that have recorded exactly the same final times, as in the example, is typical.

So making figures makes sense to control for differences day-to-day in track-surface speeds. but that's not all, not by a wide margin.

Which of the following horses has run the fastest time?

Horses in today's race routinely have competed well at different distances. Handicappers must make sensible comparisons or again the game has been lost. Running times at distinct distances are not readily comparable, but speed figures are. That is, a 90 is a 90 is a 90, distance notwithstanding.

Now which horse ran the fastest time?

The fastest horse is C. and by a comfortable margin

If an improving 3YO stretches out successfully, can it run fast enough to win today?
Can a middle-distance high-priced claiming horse get to the wire in time at 6.5 furlongs?
Can a consistent winner at six furlongs do well in long sprints?
Of horses that are versatile, which distance is Actually their best?

Fundamental questions about horses' abilities at varying distances pop up daily, and accurate figures guide handicappers to accurate answers, not always, but often.

Which of the following $10,000 claiming horses has run the faster race?

Shippers dot the racing programs everywhere, and handicappers must learn how to compare horses from different racetracks on speed. Some tracks are fast, some are slow. All tracks will be relatively fast or slow in relation to one another. Speed adjustments track-to-track are not complicated, but they are certainly relevant.

In the example, Horses A and B ran roughly the same time because Golden Gate Fields typically will be three lengths faster at six furlongs than Santa Anita.

Suppose the track surface at Santa Anita had been fast by a length when A last ran, and the surface at Golden Gate had been slow by a length when B last ran. Now which horse should win? It's the shipper, who gets at least a two-length margin on the figures. The adjusted times would be 1:10.4 for A and 1:09.4 for B. Since B ran on a track surface three lengths faster than today's track, its new adjusted time is 1:10.2. If B has been offered at 5-1 against A. because A is a shipper from Golden Gate, and presumably outclassed, that's a terrific bet. But only handicappers in possession of accurate speed figures will know it.

Which of the following horses can complete the faster race?

The example introduces the tricky subject of pace analysis, complicated further by comparing horses at different distances.

Final times can be influenced by numerous factors, but in vital ways by three:

The importance of pace has convinced many contemporary handicappers, including me, to use a combination of speed and pace figures in preference to speed figures alone. If the running times in the example were replaced by figures, can handicappers now find the faster horse?

		Pace	Speed	Total
Horse A	6F	100	102	202
Horse B	6.5F	104	103	207

No problem. Horse B has earned both the higher pace figure and the higher final figure. When the pace and speed figures are added, B prevails by five points, a speed-pace advantage of two to three lengths. Notice too that the task of comparing times at distinct distances has been buried in the figures.

Pace figures also permit a number of fascinating comparisons not possible when relying upon speed figures alone. I urge the use of speed and pace figures in combination.

That's quite a convincing array of reasons for making figures. To wit:

Other uses of speed figures will appeal variously to handicappers craving every edge. Figures can evaluate horses in the mud. If mud figures have been superior to what has been typical, those horses probably prefer the goo. Numerous horses do, and some pay boxcars. Many horses, in contrast, regress badly in the mud. The figures make plain that tendency too.

The figures also inform handicappers whether horses should run exceptionally well following layoffs. If freshened horses have earned significantly higher figures first time back, handicappers can prefer the horses at fancy odds after a rest.

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