CLAIMING RACES RESTRICTED TO THREE-YEAR-OLDS

Claiming races open to 4up, or 3up, are radically dissimilar from claiming races limited to 3YOs.

A $50,000 claiming sprint for older horses of spring will feature established runners at that selling level or thereabouts. Three-year-olds of spring entered to be claimed for the same $50,000 may be worth less than half the amount. And at no track during spring can $50,000 three-year-olds that win against their own kind finish in the shadows of their older claiming counterparts.

Casual racegoers can be knocked off balance by the ups and downs embedded in the records of three-year-old claiming horses. But handicappers need not be unduly confused. Here are a few trusty guidelines for coping with the alternating cycles.

Assume the three-year-old first entered to be claimed will be overvalued, and will probably lose.

The outstanding exception is the three-year-old that has run a good race under nonwinners allowance conditions, that's probably the best bet in any 3YO claiming race.

On the drop, rely on a three-year-old claiming horse's recent adjusted final times, or final figures, to predict whether it can withstand today's competition.

On the rise, discount final times and final figures, and rely instead on pace ratings and turn times to predict whether the escalation is warranted.

Nothing thwarts the ambitions of 3YO claiming horses on the rise as much as faster interior fractions. The claiming horses cannot accelerate earlier, notably on the turns, and repeat the previous final times. This is especially true of three-year-old claiming horses of winter, spring, and summer.

No three-year-old can be accepted under allowance conditions following a win in a 3YO claiming race unless the claiming race reveals an early pace and turn time superior to the early pace and turn times of today's main contenders.

Until November, do not play three-year-olds in claiming races open to older horses.

It's true, too, that following the three-year-old season, most claiming horses turning age four will need a drop in selling price in order to compete effectively in the older claiming division.