HANDICAPPING
APPLICATIONS |
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MAIDEN
RACES
Which
horses should be preferred in races for older maidens: first-starters
that have impressed in the morning, or horses that have raced previously
and, in an improved performance, finished second or third last out?
It's the experienced maidens, by a landslide. The second-place finish
last out is particularly powerful.
First-starters
(3up) win less than hall the percentage of maiden races probabilities
would expect them to win, a staggering statistic. Inexperience defeats
first-starters, notwithstanding the lickety-split workouts, fashionable
pedigrees, and leading jockeys.
On the
other hand, experienced maidens that finished second last out win
approximately 274 percent their fair share of the races. Almost
three times as many races as probabilities would expect! Third-place
finishers last out win roughly 174 percent their rightful share
of maiden races. The close placings are more meaningful when reflecting
an improved performance. They are superfluous among maidens that
have finished second and third repetitively, without winning next
out.
The upshot
for all handicappers is tantalizing. No more the undue anxiety about
the potential charms of those well-bred, fast-working, nicely connected
first-time starters. Throw them out. At low odds, which happens
frequently, spare none of them.
At decent
or attractive odds, practiced handicappers can contemplate two exceptions.
First,
during winter racing, many authentically talented three-year-olds
will make their long-awaited debuts. Several older maiden fields
will be crowded with first-starters. The racetrack will be buzzing
with tales of the horses' prerace exploits. Before bets are placed,
however, first-time older maidens should satisfy these standards:
1.
Regular workouts, every five or six days, with at least
one recent workout completed in sharp time, preferably
at five furlongs or longer. Faster, longer workouts are preferred,
as virtually all nicely bred, relatively sound, mature maidens
can deliver fanciful clockings for three or four furlongs. The
longer workouts are most impressive at racetracks outside of New
York or southern California. A blowout in rapid time a day or
two before the debut is meaningless. And a prerace training regimen
extending beyond ten to fifteen workouts is problematic.
2. Mounted by a leading jockey, or hot apprentice, or
regular stable rider. Jockey agents scramble furiously for the
"live" maidens on the grounds. If maidens can run fast
but top riders are absent, presumably neither the jockey agents
nor clockers nor anyone else knows it yet. when the first-starters
cakewalk to the wire in dazzling time, the insiders will be just
as surprised as local handicappers.
3. Not adorned in long front-leg bandages.
4. Certain trainers specialize in winning with first-starters.
If a maiden's trainer triumphs with 20 percent or thereabouts
of his first-starters, his beginners might be supported, but the
odds should be 4-1 minimum.
5. Similar standards attach to sires whose progeny win approximately
20 percent of their first starts. The odds must overcompensate
for the statistical risk, a 4-1 minimum. If the sire wins with
20 percent of its first-starters, but the trainer performs poorly
in the category, forget the maidens. If the trainer scores with
20 percent of his first-starters but the sire performs poorly,
accept the horses as contenders. Training usually beats breeding,
in these circumstances as well.
6. Troubled trips of maidens should never be readily excused,
especially if the problems occurred in the gate or on the turns.
If a maiden has been tardy out of the gate, however, and will
be adding blinkers today, the equipment change normally moves
them up. If the change to "blinkers on" has resulted
in a much improved effort, the improvement should continue. The
next start, second with blinkers on, regularly ends in victory.
7.
Older maidens that appear on the grass, either against other maidens
or nonwinners allowance horses, are invariably bred for turf.
Stables intend to press whatever advantages the grass pedigrees
afford them. If dirt form has been dull, and the odds sparkling,
say 10-1, handicappers should give prudent consideration to accepting
the risks. Form reversals on the turf among horses bred for grass
are commonplace in major-league racing. Several of the reversals
each season will be accounted for by three-year-old maidens of
spring and summer.
If experienced
maidens have looked lackluster, and the first-starters indistinguishable,
maiden races remain unplayable. Do not guess.
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