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MAIDEN RACES

Which horses should be preferred in races for older maidens: first-starters that have impressed in the morning, or horses that have raced previously and, in an improved performance, finished second or third last out? It's the experienced maidens, by a landslide. The second-place finish last out is particularly powerful.

First-starters (3up) win less than hall the percentage of maiden races probabilities would expect them to win, a staggering statistic. Inexperience defeats first-starters, notwithstanding the lickety-split workouts, fashionable pedigrees, and leading jockeys.

On the other hand, experienced maidens that finished second last out win approximately 274 percent their fair share of the races. Almost three times as many races as probabilities would expect! Third-place finishers last out win roughly 174 percent their rightful share of maiden races. The close placings are more meaningful when reflecting an improved performance. They are superfluous among maidens that have finished second and third repetitively, without winning next out.

The upshot for all handicappers is tantalizing. No more the undue anxiety about the potential charms of those well-bred, fast-working, nicely connected first-time starters. Throw them out. At low odds, which happens frequently, spare none of them.

At decent or attractive odds, practiced handicappers can contemplate two exceptions.

First, during winter racing, many authentically talented three-year-olds will make their long-awaited debuts. Several older maiden fields will be crowded with first-starters. The racetrack will be buzzing with tales of the horses' prerace exploits. Before bets are placed, however, first-time older maidens should satisfy these standards:

1. Regular workouts, every five or six days, with at least
one recent workout completed in sharp time, preferably
at five furlongs or longer. Faster, longer workouts are preferred, as virtually all nicely bred, relatively sound, mature maidens can deliver fanciful clockings for three or four furlongs. The longer workouts are most impressive at racetracks outside of New York or southern California. A blowout in rapid time a day or two before the debut is meaningless. And a prerace training regimen extending beyond ten to fifteen workouts is problematic.
2. Mounted by a leading jockey, or hot apprentice, or
regular stable rider. Jockey agents scramble furiously for the "live" maidens on the grounds. If maidens can run fast but top riders are absent, presumably neither the jockey agents nor clockers nor anyone else knows it yet. when the first-starters cakewalk to the wire in dazzling time, the insiders will be just as surprised as local handicappers.
3. Not adorned in long front-leg bandages.
4. Certain trainers specialize in winning with first-starters. If a maiden's trainer triumphs with 20 percent or thereabouts of his first-starters, his beginners might be supported, but the odds should be 4-1 minimum.
5. Similar standards attach to sires whose progeny win approximately 20 percent of their first starts. The odds must overcompensate for the statistical risk, a 4-1 minimum. If the sire wins with 20 percent of its first-starters, but the trainer performs poorly in the category, forget the maidens. If the trainer scores with 20 percent of his first-starters but the sire performs poorly, accept the horses as contenders. Training usually beats breeding, in these circumstances as well.
6. Troubled trips of maidens should never be readily excused, especially if the problems occurred in the gate or on the turns. If a maiden has been tardy out of the gate, however, and will be adding blinkers today, the equipment change normally moves them up. If the change to "blinkers on" has resulted in a much improved effort, the improvement should continue. The next start, second with blinkers on, regularly ends in victory.
7. Older maidens that appear on the grass, either against other maidens or nonwinners allowance horses, are invariably bred for turf. Stables intend to press whatever advantages the grass pedigrees afford them. If dirt form has been dull, and the odds sparkling, say 10-1, handicappers should give prudent consideration to accepting the risks. Form reversals on the turf among horses bred for grass are commonplace in major-league racing. Several of the reversals each season will be accounted for by three-year-old maidens of spring and summer.
 

If experienced maidens have looked lackluster, and the first-starters indistinguishable, maiden races remain unplayable. Do not guess.

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