TurfPedia™ - The Horse Racing Encyclopedia

FORM ANALYSIS

Which contenders are improving?
Which are declining?

The traditional notion that improving horses might be observed to run closer to the leader at the prestretch. stretch. and final calls following layoffs still applies. Now the guideline has been buttressed by numerous indicators of improving form that might be observed in the last running line, the last two races, or the past three. I shall mention ten, and each deserves the handicapper's attention, if not some extra credit. Each portends a better performance next time, and in combination, the indicators of improving form can be decisive.

SIGNS OF IMPROVING FORM

1. Improved adjusted final times, speed figures, and pace ratings in combination.
2. The horse "bid and hung" last out, but finished in front of half the field.
3. Engaged in an all-out stretch drive in its last race.
4. The horse won by three lengths or more last time.
5. The five-day return.
6. Improved race last out, improved workouts since.
7. Third start for a sprinter following a long layoff, provided the second start was a dramatically improved race.
8. Freshened router, a pair of sprints, stretch out to a route.
9. Exits a fast-fast claiming race with an acceptable performance.
10. Surprise early speed, dull recent form, back class.

SIGNS OF DECLINING FORM

1. Not a good race in past three.
2. A dismal performance following a 30-day recuperative rest.
3. Declining final times (adjusted), speed figures, or pace ratings, same or slower pace.
4. Stakes winners, next season, after a layoff, declining numbers.
5. Winning race, or good race, followed by an illogical drop in class.
6. Over-extension first out following lengthy layoff, the much-remarked "bounce" pattern.

Other signs of negative form include front bandages (first time), especially for maidens or stakes horses, lugging in or bearing out continually through the stretch, and an uncharacteristic lack of position at the pace call, notably in sprints.