TRIP
HANDICAPPING
Trip handicapping
refers to the scheduled observation of horses' positions, problems,
and maneuvers at various stages of the races.
The stages
of the race include: the start (gate), first turn (routes), backstretch,
far turn, entering the stretch, upper stretch, mid-stretch, and nearing
the finish. A commonly deployed notation helps handicappers record
positions, trouble, and moves at each successive stage. The notation,
a shorthand, summarizes a horse's performance as a narrative having
a beginning, middle, and end.
Below is
a standard notation that recreational handicappers can depend upon
to summarize and describe horses' trips, either on track programs--the
conventional procedure--or on individual notepads.
STAGES
OF THE RACE:
G gate
S in the stretch
FT first turn
US upper stretch
B backstretch
MS mid-stretch
T far turn
NF near the finish
E entering the stretch
POSITION
OF THE HORSE:
R along the
rail, on the rail
2- in the 2-path, or second path out from the rail
3- in the 3-path, or third path out from the rail
4- in the 4-path, or fourth path out from the rail
GP good position, in the clear
BP behind early pacesetters
LF a lone front-runner; recorded also as Lone F, a pace maneuver
2P one of two front-runners
3P one of three front-runners
W wall; situated behind a string of horses, either on the far turn.
Entering the stretch, or in the stretch
PACE
MANEUVERS:
DUEL
Engaged in a hotly contested pace duel
STALK
Situated just behind a pace duel, prepared to strike as soon as the
leaders tire or weaken
MOVE
Any obvious acceleration at any point of call; recorded in combination
with a stage of the race
MM
A strong middle move in the race
INHERIT
Overtook the pacesetters through no effort of its own, but because the
front-runner(s) tired
B
& H
Bid and hung, usually on the far turn or into the upper stretch, but
finished in front of half of field
LONE
F
A lone front-runner
RANK
Cannot be rated kindly by the jockey, usually in the early stages of
a race
Green
Has not learned the mechanics of racing; does not respond properly to
the jockey, the traffic of other horses, or routine racing situations
LAG
Stays at the rear of the field
FW
Finished well
FF
Finished fastest
TROUBLE:
SLO-1
Slow out of the gate by approximately one length
RUSH
Broke slowly, and rushed up under the jockey's urging
V
Ran into a vise, or blind switch, often after accelerating into the
pace of the race
ST
Steadied; meaning the jockey was forced to slow a horse's natural stride
and momentum, due to traffic
CK
Checked: meaning the jockey was forced to brake a horse's stride and
momentum momentarily, without losing significant ground or position
UP
Took up: meaning the jockey was forced to brake a horse's stride and
momentum completely, now losing significant ground and position before
regaining stride and momentum
ALTER
Altered course; meaning the jockey was forced to change a horse's direction
and running path, usually in the stretch
WALL
Blocked behind a wall of horses while attempting to find running room
LUG
Lugged out; meaning the jockey could not maintain a straight course
as the horse drifted to the outside, due to tiredness, soreness, or
being "green"
BORE
Bore in; meaning the jockey could not maintain a straight course as
the horse drifted to the inside, due to tiredness, soreness, or being
"green"
STUMBLE
Stumbled out of the gate, losing stride, position, and momentum
In recording
trips, the notation for position, pace maneuvers and trouble can be
combined with the stages of the race from the start to finish in a logical
progression that mimics the running.
FOR EXAMPLE:
Slo-1,
3FT, 3B, MM, Ck-FT, 5E-US, Lug-NF
describes the horrendous experience of a horse that exited the gate
sluggishly, roughly one length in arrears, raced three wide around the
first turn, remained three wide down the back-stretch, made a middle
move to gain striking position, checked on the far turn, wound up five
wide entering the stretch and in the upper stretch, and lugged out near
the finish.
The illustration
is slightly outrageous, but those below are routine:
R-B,T,E:
describes a sprinter that raced along the rail down the backside, around
the far turn, and into the stretch.
6FT,B:
describes a router that raced six wide into the first turn and continued
six wide down the backstretch.
4T,E:
describes the everyday situation of a horse racing four wide around
the far turn and entering the stretch.
R-Trip:
describes a horse that raced on the rail all the way.
Slo-2, Lag, B & H-5FT:
describes the troubled odyssey of a horse that broke slowly enough to
surrender two lengths, then lagged at the rear, and finally delivered
a bid-and-hung move while five wide around the far turn.
3P-Duel:
describes a horse involved in a three-horse pace duel.
Slo-1, Rush, V, FW:
describes a sprinter slow by a length out of the gate, rushed up, entered
a blind switch, then finished well.
GP-BF, B, T:
describes a horse that raced in good position behind the pace down the
backstretch and around the far turn.
Recreational
handicappers will want to record the trips of winners, runners-up, and
close finishers in contentious races. Also qualifying for trip notes
are horses that deliver unusual moves or encounter significant problems,
not minor mishaps, during the running.
Non-contenders
and uninteresting or uninspiring runners can be ignored. Their trips
are not meaningful.
The vexing
problem of evaluating trip data lends itself as well to amazingly simple
but crucial notation. Three symbols can be instructive and should be
used deliberately, and sparingly, only as reality demands:
X EXCUSE.
The horse would have delivered an undeniably sharper performance otherwise.
X1
An excuse that clearly prevented a horse from winning: would have won
otherwise.
P
A perfect trip. Good position, no trouble spots, at every stage of the
race.
Legitimate
excuses imply the horses will improve, provided form has remained intact.
A perfect
trip sometimes explains the surprisingly facile victory of unanticipated
horses, or exceptionally high numerical ratings, notably if other contenders
in the field experienced troubled trips.
Of excuses,
the tip-off that the X or X1 designations are indeed pertinent can be
observed following mishaps.
Do bothered
horses try to overcome obstacles? Do troubled horses finish well regardless?
If horses
sulk, waver, refuse to continue, or quit in the path of a troubled trip,
refusing to extend themselves afterward, the trip information may be
legitimate, but its meaning will be difficult to determine. It's reassuring
to observe that horses stopped in traffic, or while interfered with,
persevere willingly, and finish eagerly anyhow.
Certain trips
invariably qualify as excusable. Stay on the lookout for victims of
the following;.
1.
Front-runners in a claiming route have been kept wide all the way,
notably fanned wide on the clubhouse turn.
One of the most difficult trips to overcome, the horses must be urged
throughout, and as ordinary as they are, ultimately tire before the
wire, as early as the far turn perhaps.
If these front-runners persevere into the stretch, prepare to support
them next time. The trip will be smoother, and the odds higher.
2. Deep closers, regardless of the class,
that have been forced to take up on the far turn, or entering the
stretch, while moving, provided they appear willing to persevere following
the incident.
Few latecomers can overcome relatively severe interference and win
regardless. The horses deliver one long run, and that has been interrupted.
If troubled closers attempt to regroup, gaining ground and momentum
anew after taking up, excuse the loss, and expect an improved performance
next out. Minor traffic problems do not qualify. Steadying, checking,
bumped, blocked, forced wide, the several annoying mishaps that regularly
accompany the trips of come-from-behind horses might be registered
mentally, but not as legitimate excuses for failure. The implications
of routine minor incidents in the running are tentative and inconclusive.
Some bothered horses will improve, but many others will not.
3. Stumbling at the gate, no push by
the jockey afterward. Several unfortunate horses lose races at the
start, and the lackluster performances that follow obviously must
be excused. Usually, the poor start has sacrificed several lengths,
such that the rider decides it's foolhardy to waste the horse's limited
energies.
The admissible excuse, a truly poor break, does not extend to normal
kinds of bumping, bobbling breaking sideways, or even stumbling but
recovering quickly. On this matter the Racing Form has not served
its customers well, recording as trouble ad nauseam routine gate mishaps
that bear on the outcomes of races not at all.
Expert trip
handicappers never fail to scrutinize the race replays, and many digest
them repeatedly.
RECOGNIZING
TRACK BIAS
The eight kinds of track biases can be represented in this graph
| |
Inside |
Outside |
| Early
Speed |
+/- |
+/- |
| Late
Speed |
+/- |
+/- |
Of the eight,
the most advantageous to handicappers is the severe positive speed bias
inside, or on the rail, The positive inside speed bias propels any horse
with a trace of speed to the front, and sustains them there. Several
romp by half a furlong.
The opposite bias, a severe negative speed bias inside, defeats horses
exiting the rail post, but leaves handicappers to grapple for the winners
still. Outside biases, positive or negative, can be equally as severe
as inside biases, and impact several post positions. The far outside
posts might be advantaged atypically, but other horses toward the outside
might benefit as much.
Post-position
studies published by the Daily Racing Form astride the past performances
can clue casual handicappers to the inside-outside biases currently
operating.
In all situations,
discount underlays opposed by a bias, and credit overlays having a reasonably
strong chance and supported by a bias. Severe biases represent outstanding
sources of financial gain in the short run of a day, a weekend, a week,
a few weeks, or occasionally a month. It pays to scrutinize biases closely
enough to detect when a predominant pattern may be settling in.
Speed and
post biases for any racing day can be recorded using the following notation:
S
Bias that favors speed horses
S+
Extra-strong bias favoring speed horses
C
Bias that favors closers
C+
Extra-strong bias favoring closers
In
Bias that favors the inside posts
In+
Extra-strong bias favoring inside posts
Out
Bias that favors the outside posts
Out+
Extra-strong bias favoring outside post
