THE CHAMPION RETURNS

Let's lay down a golden rule. Under no circumstances is a champion returning to competition after a vacation in a race below Grade 1 to be bet. No exceptions, unless the odds become irresistible, which they rarely do.

The workout pattern is impressive. The horse looks sturdier and more muscular than ever. The trainer announces the champ is fit and ready. The opposition is clearly inferior. Every public selector in town concedes the outcome.

Do not bet on the champion regardless. The horse is simply not intended to win. The comeback race is part of the conditioning process. It's worse than silly to go all-out with a champion for meaningless rewards. The overexertion of a winning effort might delay the stable's preparations for another season of Grade 1 triumphs. That would be mindless. So the champ is permitted to tire and lose, and that's what handicappers should expect. If the distance, footing, or probable pace will be other than ideal, the champion's chances are even less.

This logic extends as well, if not as compellingly, to the comebacks of all Grade 1 stakes winners. Champions, division leaders, and authentic Grade 1 horses are not primed to win unimportant stakes when returning from lengthy layoffs. Avoid the temptation to bet, and the underlay odds normally proffered.

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