TurfPedia - The Horse Racing Encyclopedia

CLAIMING RACES

As most racegoers understand, claiming races call together racehorses for sale at relatively equal market values. The comparable selling prices assure that the order of competition will be more or less equitable as well. Horsemen that enter claiming horses at unrealistically low selling prices risk losing them at unfair values. Horsemen who enter claiming races at inflated prices risk a steady diet of negative results. Neither circumstance is appetizing to horse owners.

In handicapping terms, claiming races are characterized by horses having low to moderate levels of ability. Many of them are severely pressed to carry a fair portion of speed across six furlongs. Fewer still can perform that feat consistently. And fewer still can combine the speed, stamina, and competitive spirit that distinguishes claiming horses at the route.

In consequence, the effective handicapping of claiming races as a group can proceed from the following assumptions:

1. Speed, and rates of speed (pace), will generally be more important than relative class, as indicated by the kinds of horses a horse has beaten in the past.
2. Inconsistent horses will be far more prevalent than consistent horses.
3. Positive form is a prerequisite of continuous success.

Speed handicapping, pace analysis, the evaluation, and positive trainer patterns of the early speed-these must be the essential components of the practitioner's approach to claiming races.
How fast have the main contenders actually run in the
recent past?
Which horse(s) can set and maintain, or track and
overtake, the swiftest pace?
Which horse(s) might secure the early lead, and run to
victory uncontested?
Are there any positive trainer patterns that give one
horse an edge?

Recreational handicappers notoriously eliminate claiming horses rising in class. Wrong. If a claiming horse on the rise has been improving, and brandishes the high rating in the field, it not only qualifies, the upstart is very, very likely to win. If that kind of claiming horse also reveals back class, handicappers should never hesitate to demonstrate their support.

To complicate matters, it's clear the speed factors can conflict with one another annoyingly. Claiming horses showing the fastest adjusted final times may not have the highest pace ratings. Early-speed leaders may reveal neither the fastest adjusted final times nor highest pace ratings, or they may possess the fastest adjusted times but not the highest pace ratings.

Or, in many claiming races the main contenders may have similar numbers.

What to do? It depends.

First, in sprints, examine the turn times or second fractions of the contenders. If one horse has a superior turn time, by two lengths or more, prefer that horse. Many claiming horses flashing attractive adjusted times or exciting early speed cannot handle an unaccustomed fast pace throughout the second quarter mile, which includes the far turn. When the turn time accelerates, the final time declines.

Second, if the probable pace appears normal or unusually fast, prefer horses having the highest pace ratings. Pace ratings embrace significant relationships that adjusted final times do not reflect.

Competent claiming trainers surely deserve extra attention following a claim.

Some claiming trainers impress on the rise, others on the drop, and a few in both directions. Certain trainers win claiming races following lengthy layoffs, and others bring selling horses to peak performances using the traditional sequencing of regular races and workouts, each of them improving. It pays to know who's who among the claiming trainers, including those that rarely win a race.

So the vast majority of claiming races in major racing can be dissected using an array of handicapping tools that resembles this pattern:

1. Numerical ratings of final times, pace, and early speed, preferably in combination.
2. Competent claiming trainers.
3. Troubled trips, of the kind that suggest a claiming horse's prior ratings can be improved today.
4. Impressively improving form.

Claiming races represent approximately 70 percent of the horse races on the national calendars. Recreational handicappers must learn how to cope with them successfully. The alternative is depressing.