TurfPedia - The Horse Racing Encyclopedia

Fillies vs. Colts

The issue is not whether fillies can topple colts, because they do, but under what circumstances do fillies have an especially favorable chance to upset, and under what circumstances do they confront a negligible chance.

A precocious filly possessed of brilliance (high speed) and competitive spirit can outrun comparably talented but immature underdeveloped males until those males develop and mature. A brilliant, fully mature mare cannot outduel comparably talented, fully mature males. A Winning Colors can outrun a Forty Niner. A Lady's Secret would be squashed by a Turkoman.

An interesting variation of the theme has been transported to U.S. handicappers from Europe, where older fillies and mares regularly defeat leading males at marathon distances on the turf.

The reason is a lazy pace. Females possessed of abundant endurance, but with a brilliant burst of speed in reserve, can relax into an ambling stride for a mile or longer, squandering little energy, and then rush to the wire as fast as latent power allows. If the late burst is sufficiently fast and powerful, the ladies win. As the races involved are normally stakes bringing together the outstanding horses on the continent, no one should be surprised at the results.

The phenomenon occurs less frequently in the States, where the pace is comparatively brisk and often savagely debated. The American fillies and mares expend greater amounts of energy early, with less in reserve for the furious finish. On U.S. main tracks, the typical longer nonclaiming route demands far greater expenditures of speed and stamina during the first six furlongs, and now females do not often endure against the stronger, more powerful males.

Better fillies and mares deserve full attention against nonclaiming males under contrasting conditions:

1. In sprints and routes for two-year-olds, and three-year olds of spring and early summer, provided the fillies possess abundant speed and have earned a higher numerical rating than any colt in the field.
2. In routes on the turf, provided the females will not be required to set or contest the pace during the first six furlongs or mile, and have already defeated horses comparable to, or better than, today's class.

In other nonclaiming circumstances, the males predominate such that fillies and mares are rarely even tempted. And among younger, still developing three-year-olds, once the males have matured, the fillies will be pounded. As soon as three months following the 1988 Kentucky Derby, for example, Winning Colors would have been stretched to steal a Grade 2 stakes open to colts. She could not have beaten Forty Niner in the Travers Stakes in August, and if Winning Colors had attempted to compete with handicap males 4up in the fall championship stakes, she would have been slaughtered.

In major-league claiming races, fillies vs. colts is virtually a moot question, as females stay in their own division. When females do challenge males in claiming races, a single operating principle guides the handicapping: fillies and mares must have completed a good race against clearly superior female claiming horses, and while doing so have earned a numerical rating at least comparable to today's male contenders.

Under $10,000 claiming, handicappers can be more flexible. Not-as-cheap females can overhaul cheap males. It happens at minor tracks daily. A small class edge, combined with sharp or improving form, is enough. In maiden-claiming races, fillies with an early-speed advantage can run away from the slower males, who are too untalented to catch up.