TurfPedia - The Horse Racing Encyclopedia

FOLLOWING LAYOFFS

Handicappers become bedeviled by horses' form cycles following layoffs.

Can horses win fresh?
Should they improve on the second start?
If so, why do so many of them regress?
What about class drops following layoffs; good sign or bad?
What about changes of distance?

None of these questions can be answered unequivocally, but certain facts are well known.

While many horses win fresh after a layoff of 90 days or longer, the majority do not. The vital signs are
(a) a win following a similar layoff in the past, and
(b) a trainer that strikes quickly, or one that bears down all the time. Both conditions should be present.

The knowledge here is specific. Handicappers must know enough about the horse and trainer in question to draw a conclusion. An intriguing fact lost to handicappers is that routers win following layoffs more frequently than do sprinters. Casual handicappers share the tendency to accept sprinters returning from layoffs but not routers. This is backward. The slower pace of routes conserves energy. The energy so reserved can be released in one long late run.

The bounce pattern excepted, horses should run better the second start following a layoff. Usually, however, they do not win. The crucial starts following layoffs are the third and fourth, the third especially.

Accept these guidelines:

1. In sprints, the third start following a layoff is best, provided the second start was a sprint and a good race.
2. In routes, the third start following a layoff is best when preceded by a pair of improving sprints.

The guideline for routes is instructive. Statistics have revealed the two-sprint combination is the most successful stretchout pattern following layoffs or 90 days or longer. The least successful is one sprint. Second best is a sprint, a route, and another route.