THE
INSIDE SPEED BIAS
Recreational
handicappers can benefit from cursory analyses of the post-position
studies published by the Daily Racing Form astride the past performances
for the first race at the local track.
Look
for severe track biases favoring one or two posts, either inside or
outside. If inside posts have been winning a vastly disproportionate
share of the races, assume the early-speed horses have been galloping
unmolested. To confirm the assumption, pay attention to the early
races. If an inexplicable long shot goes wire to wire after exiting
the one- or two-hole, prepare to back other overlays exiting the same
posts for the rest of the day. These are the tell-tale clues:
1.
Post-positions 1 and 2 have won a significantly disproportionate share
of the races.
2. Horses that otherwise do not figure
to win will romp home on the lead from the inside posts.
3. In routes, either the No. 1 post dominates,
or horses that speed immediately to the rail do.
4. In routes, the horses resemble a string
of pearls while racing down the backside. Few horses change position
between calls. The lead horses continue to widen the gap. A horse
in the front flight consistently wins.
A
cautionary note regards frontrunners in sprints that win from the
inside posts but figure to impress nonetheless. This is a coincidence,
not a bias. Too many casual handicappers observe the first two races
have been won by frontrunners, or by horses exiting the rail slot.
They conclude the track surface is biased in favor of early speed
on the inside.
Positive
biases help contenders dominate and move noncontenders up.
The
inside speed bias has an opposite number, a negative rail bias. This
tires frontrunners on the inside. The advantage shifts to speed on
the outside, at least in front-speed duels.
Negative
rail biases cannot be exploited as directly as positive rail biases.
The time to exploit negative rail biases is later. Any frontrunner
that runs impressively against a negative rail bias is strongly advantaged
if wheeled back when the bias has disappeared. If the bias persists
but one of its frontrunning victims returns in a favorable post position
following a strong effort, the odds might be delectable.
Whenever they are, make the play.
