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MAIDEN
RACES
Which horses
should be preferred in races for older maidens: first-starters that
have impressed in the morning, or horses that have raced previously
and, in an improved performance, finished second or third last out?
It's the experienced maidens, by a landslide. The second-place finish
last out is particularly powerful.
First-starters
(3up) win less than hall the percentage of maiden races probabilities
would expect them to win, a staggering statistic. Inexperience defeats
first-starters, notwithstanding the lickety-split workouts, fashionable
pedigrees, and leading jockeys.
On the other
hand, experienced maidens that finished second last out win approximately
274 percent their fair share of the races. Almost three times as many
races as probabilities would expect! Third-place finishers last out
win roughly 174 percent their rightful share of maiden races. The close
placings are more meaningful when reflecting an improved performance.
They are superfluous among maidens that have finished second and third
repetitively, without winning next out.
The upshot for
all handicappers is tantalizing. No more the undue anxiety about the
potential charms of those well-bred, fast-working, nicely connected
first-time starters. Throw them out. At low odds, which happens frequently,
spare none of them.
At decent or
attractive odds, practiced handicappers can contemplate two exceptions.
First, during
winter racing, many authentically talented three-year-olds will make
their long-awaited debuts. Several older maiden fields will be crowded
with first-starters. The racetrack will be buzzing with tales of the
horses' prerace exploits. Before bets are placed, however, first-time
older maidens should satisfy these standards:
1.
Regular workouts, every five or six days, with at least
one recent workout completed in sharp time, preferably
at five furlongs or longer. Faster, longer workouts are preferred,
as virtually all nicely bred, relatively sound, mature maidens can
deliver fanciful clockings for three or four furlongs. The longer
workouts are most impressive at racetracks outside of New York or
southern California. A blowout in rapid time a day or two before the
debut is meaningless. And a prerace training regimen extending beyond
ten to fifteen workouts is problematic.
2. Mounted by a leading jockey, or hot apprentice, or
regular stable rider. Jockey agents scramble furiously for the "live"
maidens on the grounds. If maidens can run fast but top riders are
absent, presumably neither the jockey agents nor clockers nor anyone
else knows it yet. when the first-starters cakewalk to the wire in
dazzling time, the insiders will be just as surprised as local handicappers.
3. Not adorned in long front-leg bandages.
4. Certain trainers specialize in winning with first-starters. If
a maiden's trainer triumphs with 20 percent or thereabouts of his
first-starters, his beginners might be supported, but the odds should
be 4-1 minimum.
5. Similar standards attach to sires whose progeny win approximately
20 percent of their first starts. The odds must overcompensate for
the statistical risk, a 4-1 minimum. If the sire wins with 20 percent
of its first-starters, but the trainer performs poorly in the category,
forget the maidens. If the trainer scores with 20 percent of his first-starters
but the sire performs poorly, accept the horses as contenders. Training
usually beats breeding, in these circumstances as well.
6. Troubled trips of maidens should never be readily excused, especially
if the problems occurred in the gate or on the turns. If a maiden
has been tardy out of the gate, however, and will be adding blinkers
today, the equipment change normally moves them up. If the change
to "blinkers on" has resulted in a much improved effort,
the improvement should continue. The next start, second with blinkers
on, regularly ends in victory.
7.
Older maidens that appear on the grass, either against other maidens
or nonwinners allowance horses, are invariably bred for turf. Stables
intend to press whatever advantages the grass pedigrees afford them.
If dirt form has been dull, and the odds sparkling, say 10-1, handicappers
should give prudent consideration to accepting the risks. Form reversals
on the turf among horses bred for grass are commonplace in major-league
racing. Several of the reversals each season will be accounted for
by three-year-old maidens of spring and summer.
If experienced
maidens have looked lackluster, and the first-starters indistinguishable,
maiden races remain unplayable. Do not guess.
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