TurfPedia - The Horse Racing Encyclopedia

STATE-BREDS VS. OPEN COMPETITION

Time differences being as gross as they tend to be, handicappers generally can evaluate state-breds in relation to comparable open competition by numerical ratings-adjusted times, speed figures, pace ratings, turn times, and early speed. State-breds usually will be rated despairingly lower than counterparts exiting open races.

Certain class maneuvers from state-bred to open races, and vice versa, warrant special attention from handicappers.

The maneuver from open medium-priced claiming races to nonwinners allowance races restricted to state-breds can constitute a cleverly deceptive drop in class. If the claiming race were completed in respectable time, and the state-bred horse dispensed an acceptable performance, it's a legitimate contender, maybe a probable winner, in the state-bred allowance affair the converse does not hold. The transition from the state-bred allowances to mid-level open claiming competition represents a steep step-up for most state-breds.

Drops from state-bred stakes to open overnight conditions can be trickier. The adjusted times of the state-bred stakes should be superior to the typical times (pars) of the overnight races. Lean on numerical ratings as best indicators.

At all racetracks, all classes, the maneuver of greatest intrigue - up or down - is from open competition to state-bred restrictions. Class standouts reside here. If the open race looks better, and numerical ratings of any kind reinforce that perception, trust the open competition.