THE STAKES RACES

In ascending order of importance and prestige, stakes races can be classified at one of six levels:

Restricted
Open
Listed
Grade 3
Grade 2
Grade 1

Restricted stakes, lowest in the pecking order, bar former stakes winners, or horses that have won a specified amount of first money since a specified date. Restricted stakes are indicated in the Racing Form by the symbols R, or S, the S meaning the race was limited to state-breds.

Open stakes, by definition, are open to all comers. Owners merely pay nomination fees, entry fees, and starting fees, all of which will be redistributed to the winning owner, and the proud possessions can compete in stakes. The racetrack adds a hefty purse, referred to as added-money. Open stakes traditionally have been differentiated by the amounts of added-money, a perfectly reliable index of competitive quality, as horsemen are attracted to stakes races in exact proportion to the money added.

Listed stakes, unknown to racegoers and to most regular handicappers as well, are considered by racing's establishment of sufficient prestige to be "listed" on the pages of international sales catalogs. Owners and breeders hold winners of listed stakes in higher esteem than they do winners of open but unlisted stakes, and handicappers should too. The purses are richer, the competition keener, and the winners praiseworthy.

Grade 3 races involve even bigger purses and better horses, but the competition is less than definitive. At the highest echelons of the sport, at major tracks, Grade 3 stakes are often engaged as stepping-stones to Grade 1 objectives.

Winners of the nation's Grade 3 stakes deserve notice and applause, but they accumulate little reputation and scarce breeding value.

Grade 2 stakes provide prestigious titles, $100,000-plus purses, and happy hunting grounds for horses of truly outstanding speed and competitiveness that simply cannot overtake the Grade 1 superstars. Grade 2 winners might become important horses, and multiple Grade 2 winners often will be rewarded with breeding syndications of the pedestrian kind. Grade 2 horses can be considered a prime cut above the lower-grade stakes varieties, and can usually beat those horses into humble submission.

Grade 1 stakes, approximately 120 in number, call together the fastest horses of a generation, and ultimately define the sport's champions, near-champions, and division leaders. Purses are extravagant, distances longer, and the competition supreme, at least much of the time. Until 1989, the lonesome Grade 1 sprint in North America was Belmont Park's Vosburgh Stakes, at seven furlongs.

In identifying the contenders of stakes races, it's crucial that novices and recreational handicappers begin to assign the horses to a level of the stakes hierarchy. The procedure can clarify real class differences. For practical purposes, we condense the six levels of the stakes hierarchy into three:

 

In practice, handicappers can consider open stakes at $100,000-added and above the equivalent of listed stakes.

And to distinguish authentically outstanding stakes horses from the multitudes, these are the best.

Each entry in a stakes race deserves a class rating, 6 to 10. Staying pragmatic, before stakes winners are assigned a class rating of 7 (Listed and Grade 3) or 8 (Grade 2 and Grade 1), handicappers might demand they have won at least two stakes at the level. All other stakes winners are assigned a 6 (Restricted and Open Stakes).

As a rule, closely matched contenders within stakes categories can be separated reliably by numerical ratings: adjusted final times, speed figures, and pace ratings. Pace ratings in combination with final-time figures might be preferred, as stakes horses should rate highly at both ends of the races. Stakes horses having come-from-behind running styles can be exempted from a fast-pace standard, as the horses will score relatively low on a pace scale.

In certain situations the numerical ratings of stakes horses have limited or fraudulent application.

Numerical ratings obtained at middle distances are worthless at classic distances. Abundant evidence supports the assertion. The extra quarter mile of the 11/4 mile classics places a tremendous premium on added outlays of stamina and competitiveness, not speed. Numerical ratings earned at middle distance primarily reflect brilliance or speed. For that reason, graded-stakes performances at middle distances are not strongly correlated with similar performances at classic distances.

This does not mean stakes horses at classic distances cannot be evaluated by numerical ratings. But the numerical ratings should have been obtained at classic distances, not at middle distances.

None of this helps recreational handicappers predict season to season which three-year-olds will win the Kentucky Derby or Belmont Stakes, but it does explain why experts who rely solely on numerical ratings obtained by developing horses at middle distances fall flat on their classic predictions every spring.

Also, numerical ratings earned by three-year-olds while competing against their own age group will almost always decline when the younger stakes horses face older stakes horses during summer and fall. The pace will be swifter and more stubbornly disputed, and the late-speed requirements go up - fantastically up. Keep in mind that routes for three-year-olds, on average, are completed a full second slower than similar routes open to older horses. The statistical findings apply to stakes races too. Truly outstanding three-year-olds are excepted, and will maintain their typical ratings.

In another anomaly, numerical ratings of stakes horses obtained in one-turn routes should not be used to evaluate the horses in two-turn routes. The practice is notoriously misleading if the distance will change from a mile to a longer middle distance.

Certain dropdowns in the stakes division will be more meaningful than others, resulting regularly in class standouts that win. Be alert for two:

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