TurfPedia - The Horse Racing Encyclopedia

THREE-YEAR-OLDS & UP

However the rumor began that three-year-olds can't beat their elders, the cost to the American horseplayer has been irreparable.

In fact, three-year-olds can beat older horses, and sometimes should be expected to, depending upon the conditions of eligibility. Or depending upon the kinds of races at hand.

If maidens of summer, 3up, will run, do handicappers prefer a four-year-old that has never won a race? How about a five-year-old? I think not.

Time of the season is also pertinent. Studies of the running times of races limited to three-year-olds reveal the typical times (pars) are slower by lengths than the typical times of older horses of comparable class, but the differences decrease as the season progresses.

In sprints, three-year-olds are slower by three fifths on January 1, by two fifths on April 15, and by one fifth on July 1. Not until November 1 do time differences disappear entirely.

At 1 1/16 miles, three-year-olds are slower by seven fifths on January 1, by a second on April 15, and by three fifths on July 1. Come November 1, three-year-olds at the route are still slower, by one fifth of a second, approximately a length.

These findings apply rigorously to claiming races. The inference that three-year-old claiming horses cannot challenge their elders successfully in spring, summer, and early fall is largely correct, notably at the route.

So the matter of three-year-olds & up is a mixed bag. The crucial variables are eligibility conditions and time of the season. Handicappers need to know in what kinds of races three-year-olds stand a greater or lesser chance.