TURF RACES

CLASS AND LATE SPEED ON THE GRASS
No one should doubt the significance of class handicapping on the turf. Early speed is incidental, and often suicidal. Early pace can be irrelevant, or self-defeating. Final time can be entirely misleading, and so, too, the accompanying figures.

Late speed, and the capacity to prolong a late burst without let-up against horses of comparable or superior ability, is the distinguishing attribute. Whether the early pace has been relatively fast or relatively slow, turf contenders prepared to finish with a cannon blast of speed are most likely to prevail.

Recreational handicappers can benefit on the turf by turning standard operating procedure on end.

Identify the horses particularly well suited to today's class (not outclassed), or bred for grass. Calculate the late speed of each, using grass lines only. Be relatively strict about distance, using closely related distances whenever possible. Late speed at a mile may fizzle at 1 1/4 miles.

Of the experienced runners, which horses have finished fastest? Which can finish similarly fast, or faster, and in a determined manner, against the classiest field? Credit stables and trainers that concentrate on winning turf races.

The calculation of late speed is elementary arithmetic.
At middle distances subtract the second-call fractional time from the final time. Add or subtract lengths gained or lost.

At the classic distances of 1 1/4 miles and 1 1/2 miles,
calculate the final-quarter time. Adjust for lengths gained or lost.

At 1 3/8 miles calculate the final three eighths of a mile.
Adjust for lengths gained or lost.

The class of the field on grass is often the horse boasting the best performance against the most advanced competition in its recent turf races. The last six turf starts form an index of recent consistency.

On grass, too, the conventional levels of the class hierarchy are not as compressed, or squeezed into narrow brackets. Class barriers on the turf remain distinct, even though customary margins of victory are shorter. When separating contenders, rely on the following hierarchy:

RELATED CLASS LEVELS ON GRASS

A separation of one class level can now be considered significant. Within the nonclaiming turf division as well, especially in the classified allowances and stakes, the richer the purse, the better the race.

As always, the younger developing horses must be treated distinctly.

Nonclaiming three-year-olds sort themselves out as grass runners beginning in late spring and throughout the summer and fall. The handicapping must be adaptive, as many of the horses will have no experience, or little experience, on the lawn.

Pedigree matters most. And running style matters considerably more than most handicappers realize.

Breeding for grass is instrumental whenever inexperienced horses switch from dirt to turf. Among developing horses having effective turf sires, studies show handicappers can make steady substantial profits by backing the horses on their first two grass attempts. Dirt form is not relevant. Dull form is acceptable, provided the successful turf sire looms menacingly in the background.

Turf breeding top and bottom enhances the profit margin.

The leading three-year-olds of every season display an abundance of speed and early speed, brilliance actually, and many of them do not learn to conserve it kindly while running freely toward the front on the dirt.

When switched to the turf, the brilliant and free-running styles collapse in a kind of exhaustion the young unseasoned horses have not previously experienced.

Expected to win, or to contend strongly, the impressively fast, pace-pressing three-year-olds instead fall back in the late stages. Until the developing colts and fillies learn to control their speed, and to dole it out conservatively, they represent poor prospects in turf routes.

Alternatively, off-pace three-year-olds and stronger closers unable to get up on the dirt track often move ahead dramatically on the grass. If a nonclaiming three-year-old has been finishing from behind impressively on the dirt, with obvious reserves of energy and power, it might be a clever bet against faster sophomores when first they try the turf.

Moreover, whenever a nonclaiming three-year-old wins powerfully, or improves impressively, especially from behind, when first turned loose on the grass, handicappers should expect an encore. The horses prefer the turf, and should continue to flourish on that gentler surface. Expiring speed does not often survive on the grass, whether across six furlongs or twelve.

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