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HANDICAPPING
PROCESS

 

 

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MARKING THE PAST PERFORMANCES

A HANDICAPPING HABIT shared by racegoers is marking the past performances of the Daily Racing Form. The markings provide clues to the abilities of horses, as perceived by the handicapper. The habit becomes deeply instinctive. Most handicappers begin the handicapping process by marking the Form with numbers and symbols that represent mental codes understood solely by the individual.

TO FOLLOW THIS SECTION PLEASE HAVE IN FRONT OF YOU A COPY OF THE DAILY RACING FORM OR AN OFFICIAL TRACK PROGRAM THAT CONTAINS THE HORSES' PAST PERFORMANCES

MARKING THE PAST PERFORMANCES

Use lines, circles, and symbols to emphasize these
1. The good races/wins
2. Layoffs
3. Speed points/ Early speed aspects of the horses'
4. Form symbols recent records.
5. Trainer-jockey symbols
6. Workouts

PURPOSE
The lines, circles, and symbols focus the player's immediate attention on some important early patterns and details.
In particular, the pattern of "good" races indicates the horse's relative class when showing his best stuff.

FINDING THE "GOOD" RACES
Below are a few simple routines recommended as starting points for effective handicapping. They are intended to provide first impressions of horses' relative class, early speed, current form, and trainer-jockey connections.

First, from top to bottom, review the past performances and draw a line under the running line of the most recent winning race.

Second, move up the past performances from the latest win, and in the margin use a hash mark to identify any race that has been "good." A good race means a finish in the money, or within two lengths in sprints, within three lengths in routes.

By completing two small steps, handicappers have identified the "good" performances in a horse's recent record. For horses 4up, the procedure captures each horse's relative class fairly well.

Also, when rating methods are used, the ratings will usually be extracted from the "good" races. These races best represent the horses' abilities and preferences. Handicappers prefer to rate horses when they have performed well, not when they have disappointed, or finished up the course.

A few definitions are important:
GOOD RACE
A finish in the money, or within two lengths of the winner in a sprint, within three lengths in a route.

ACCEPTABLE RACE
A finish that beats half the field, and/or within six lengths of the winner.

BIG WIN
A win by 3 lengths or more.

Trainers can also be designated as positive (+), acceptable (N), or negative (0). So can jockey switches. So can sires, owners, and breeders, whenever the situation invites marks for those contributions.

CHECKING THE TRAINERS AND JOCKEYS
In the early stage of handicapping, trainer-jockey defects do not eliminate horses. The circumstances are merely noted for later consideration. Ineffective trainers that win with fewer than 8 percent of their starters are truly negative factors, but the horses might earn competitive ratings regardless and be offered at tantalizing odds. Look for plusses on the form and jockey factors as compensations, especially if a weak trainer's horses will be dropping in class. Trainers and jockeys merit a plus under certain circumstances.

Award trainers a plus sign under these circumstances

1. Ranks among the leaders at the meeting, as indicated by a win percent of 20% or better.
2. Has been especially effective in situations like today's, that is, with recent claims, with first starters, on the turf, and following lengthy layoffs.
3. Has been hot, as indicated by a recent win percentage roughly twice as high as normal.

Inversely, if trainers win with 8 percent of their starters, have been ineffective in situations like today's, or have been cold lately, assign them a zero.
All other trainers can be assigned the N, for acceptable, or a U, for unknown.
Award jockeys a plus sign under these circumstances

1. Ranks among the leaders at the meeting, as indicated by a win percent of 20% or better.
2. Represents a favorable jockey switch, particularly in combination with a drop in class.
3. Has been hot lately, as indicated by a win percentage roughly twice as high as normal.
4. Is the leading apprentice, especially if employed by a trainer who wins with apprentices consistently.
5. Has a specialty well suited to today's race, such as winning on the turf, getting two-year-olds out of the gate, or riding for a specific stable when its horses are well intended.

Be cautious when assigning jockeys a zero. Riders are not nearly as significant in handicapping as are trainers, and are notoriously over-criticized. If jockeys, especially leaders, have been unequivocally cold, give them a zero. Clearly unfavorable switches also deserve a zero. So does a weak rider under testing circumstances, as in important stakes, in contentious grass races featuring classy horses, or exiting the far outside posts at middle distances on mile ovals.

Otherwise, jockeys can be assigned the N, for acceptable. Under questionable or unknown circumstances, afford jockeys the benefit of the doubt, an N.

Weak jockeys, and minor jockeys, win races every day, and many pay juicy mutuels.

T H E     E S S E N T I A L S
Handicapping: Factors, Process, Applications, Methods
Extras: Pedigree Database, The Horse, Links, Race Tracks

 
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