GRADE 1 WINNERS IN CLASSIFIED ALLOWANCE FIELDS

Whenever a Grade 1 stakes winner is entered under classified allowance conditions, handicappers should expect the horse to lose. There are no exceptions.

The reason is elementary. No Grade 1 stakes winner is prepared or intended to win any allowance race. The objective makes no sense. Grade 1 horses are prepared and intended to win additional stakes races, and preferably additional graded stakes. Minor races offer minor money, no prestige, and no breeding value. Graded stakes offer major money, prestige, and tremendous breeding value. Any premature or ill-advised exertion to win minor races with important horses is not happily indulged.

Instead of the Grade I underlay, handicappers should prefer (a) runners-up in graded stakes, or (b) winners once since the specified date of a classified race having a purse equal to or higher than today's, or (c) horses that have accomplished each of the above since the specified date.

The better the overall record, the brighter the prospects today. The fewer the attempts since the specified date, the better, though five, six, or seven starts is entirely normal and acceptable. Also, in any classified allowance race, horses particularly well-suited to the distance deserve extra credit. Ditto for horses particularly well-suited to the footing and probable pace.

Occasionally, Grade 1 winners that have been racing regularly, but exhibiting dull or puzzling form, will be lowered to classified allowance conditions, or to minor stakes. Form has become a mystery, and trainers need to know whether the stars require a rest. The trainers know Grade 1 horses should pulverize classified horses, and now intend to win.

But form has become problematic, odds will be paltry, and handicappers should abandon the horses. Grade 1 winners do not belong in classified races, period.

Notwithstanding all of the above, Grade I horses returning from layoffs do enter classified races, and sometimes win waltzing. Innate ability tells. Racegoers should not be upset. Grade 1 dropdowns may win as underlays, but they lose as underlays, too, often enough that handicappers in the know can profit by betting against them.