TurfPedia™ - The Horse Racing Encyclopedia

THE INSIDE SPEED BIAS

Recreational handicappers can benefit from cursory analyses of the post-position studies published by the Daily Racing Form astride the past performances for the first race at the local track.

Look for severe track biases favoring one or two posts, either inside or outside. If inside posts have been winning a vastly disproportionate share of the races, assume the early-speed horses have been galloping unmolested. To confirm the assumption, pay attention to the early races. If an inexplicable long shot goes wire to wire after exiting the one- or two-hole, prepare to back other overlays exiting the same posts for the rest of the day. These are the tell-tale clues:

1. Post-positions 1 and 2 have won a significantly disproportionate share of the races.
2. Horses that otherwise do not figure to win will romp home on the lead from the inside posts.
3. In routes, either the No. 1 post dominates, or horses that speed immediately to the rail do.
4. In routes, the horses resemble a string of pearls while racing down the backside. Few horses change position between calls. The lead horses continue to widen the gap. A horse in the front flight consistently wins.

A cautionary note regards frontrunners in sprints that win from the inside posts but figure to impress nonetheless. This is a coincidence, not a bias. Too many casual handicappers observe the first two races have been won by frontrunners, or by horses exiting the rail slot. They conclude the track surface is biased in favor of early speed on the inside.

Positive biases help contenders dominate and move noncontenders up.

The inside speed bias has an opposite number, a negative rail bias. This tires frontrunners on the inside. The advantage shifts to speed on the outside, at least in front-speed duels.

Negative rail biases cannot be exploited as directly as positive rail biases. The time to exploit negative rail biases is later. Any frontrunner that runs impressively against a negative rail bias is strongly advantaged if wheeled back when the bias has disappeared. If the bias persists but one of its frontrunning victims returns in a favorable post position following a strong effort, the odds might be delectable.

Whenever they are, make the play.

T H E E S S E N T I A L S
Handicapping: Factors, Process, Applications, Methods
Extras: Pedigree Database, The Horse, Links, Race Tracks